As the 2024 election season ramps up, Democrats are scrambling to defend a slew of Senate seats in battleground states. Pennsylvania, long considered a key to both the Senate majority and the White House, is one such battleground. Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. is facing a strong challenge from Republican candidate David McCormick, former hedge fund CEO. Recent polls suggest that this race is tightening, and it may come down to the wire.
The latest polling data shows a slim lead for Casey, with several polls putting him just one or two points ahead of McCormick—well within the margin of error. For instance, an Emerson College poll and a survey from Trafalgar each showed Casey with only a one or two-point lead over McCormick. This is in stark contrast to earlier polling that showed Casey up by as much as nine points, making Pennsylvania one of the most competitive Senate races in 2024.
Pennsylvania, vote Dave McCormick for your Senator. Help President Trump Make America Great Again.
Is Another Democrat-Held Senate Seat on the Verge of Flipping? https://t.co/Mw0CtKMLvY
— Rob (@Rob35965212) October 4, 2024
What makes this race particularly important is its potential to sway the Senate majority. With Republicans only needing to flip a few seats to regain control, a victory in Pennsylvania would be a major step toward that goal. Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund, emphasized that the fate of both the White House and the Senate could very well hinge on Pennsylvania
Adding to Republican momentum is a strategic focus on increasing voter turnout through expanded early voting and mail-in ballots. In 2024, Republicans in Pennsylvania have already more than doubled their request for mail-in ballots compared to 2020. This shift is seen as part of a broader effort by conservative groups to mobilize voters and capitalize on changes in voting behavior.
.@Liz_Cheney (FULL SPEECH) Hero . Patriot and a True American who knows what it means to put Country before party even at the expense of losing her Congressional Seat
Cheney : "I have never voted for a Democrat, but this year I am proudly casting my vote for Kamala Harris"… pic.twitter.com/V1U15hQUrc
— Jeff Storobinsky (@jeffstorobinsky) October 3, 2024
Additionally, the broader political climate could influence this race. As Republicans aim to take advantage of President Biden’s low approval ratings in key states like Pennsylvania, they are increasingly optimistic about flipping Casey's seat. The GOP has been buoyed by favorable trends in voter registration and turnout, particularly in rural and suburban areas that have traditionally leaned conservative.
Bob Casey, a three-term incumbent, has historically enjoyed strong support in Pennsylvania. However, the dynamics of this election cycle differ significantly from his previous races. The national political environment is volatile, and with Pennsylvania being a swing state, it remains unclear whether Casey’s past popularity will be enough to hold off the surge of conservative enthusiasm backing McCormick.
This is far from the only Democrat-held Senate seat at risk. Other vulnerable Democrats include Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Both seats are in states that Trump won comfortably in 2020. The GOP is also making strong plays in Nevada and Arizona. With Democrats defending 23 seats compared to just 10 for Republicans, the GOP is eyeing multiple opportunities to flip the Senate.
As election day nears, ground game efforts will be critical. McCormick’s team is focusing on mobilizing low-propensity voters and expanding outreach efforts across the state. Republicans are hopeful that if Donald Trump remains strong on the presidential ballot, his presence could provide a boost to down-ticket candidates like McCormick
