A new poll reveals that Montana’s Democratic Senator Jon Tester is trailing his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, in a contest that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. The poll, commissioned by AARP, shows Sheehy holding a six-point lead, with 51% of likely voters favoring the GOP challenger compared to 45% for Tester.
Tester, a three-term incumbent, faces a tough reelection battle in a state that has leaned heavily Republican in recent national elections. With only a slim Democratic majority in the Senate, the Montana race is pivotal as Republicans aim to regain control. Polls have consistently shown Tester in a tight race, and recent surveys indicate a shift in support toward Sheehy as the November 2024 election approaches.
Jon Tester is in deep trouble in Montana! With the Senate hanging in the balance, it’s all over but the crying. Looks like Montana voters are ready for a change! #Montana #Senate2024 #JonTester #GOP #Election2024 https://t.co/prp7BqPjFv
— Flopping Aces (@FloppingAces) October 11, 2024
Sheehy’s advantage is strongest among older and rural voters, key demographics in Montana. Polling shows that voters over the age of 50 favor Sheehy by a margin of 17 points. Montana’s rural population, which makes up the majority of the state’s electorate, has also leaned heavily toward Sheehy. In contrast, Tester enjoys more support in urban areas, though those voters represent only about 19% of the state's electorate.
The poll also shows Sheehy leading among men and voters without a college degree, groups that have traditionally favored conservative candidates. In comparison, Tester’s strongest support comes from women and younger voters. However, those groups have not been enough to offset Sheehy’s lead in key segments of the population.
— Mary❤️🇺🇸 (@patriotmary4) October 11, 2024
Tester’s vulnerability is compounded by the fact that he is one of only a few Democrats representing deep-red states, making him a prime target for Republicans in the upcoming election. Other vulnerable Democrats, such as West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, have already announced they will not seek reelection, intensifying the GOP’s focus on flipping Tester’s seat.
This polling trend comes as Montana’s presidential race also leans heavily Republican, with former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points in the state. Trump’s popularity in Montana, where he won handily in both 2016 and 2020, has bolstered Sheehy’s campaign, as both share strong support among conservative voters.
Given the high stakes, both parties are expected to pour significant resources into the Montana Senate race, with Sheehy positioning himself as a political outsider and businessman, contrasting himself with Tester’s long tenure in Washington.
Republican strategists are counting on Montana’s conservative leanings to push Sheehy over the top, while Democrats hope to mobilize urban and younger voters to defend Tester’s seat.
